Evolutionary Genetics of Human Enterovirus 71: Origin,Population Dynamics,Natural Selection,and Seasonal Periodicity of the VP1 Gene

Human enterovirus 71 (EV-71) is one of the major etiologic causes of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) among young children worldwide, with fatal instances of neurological complications becoming increasingly common. Global VP1 capsid sequences (n = 628) sampled over 4 decades were collected and subjected to comprehensive evolutionary analysis using a suite of phylogenetic and population genetic methods. We estimated that the common ancestor of human EV-71 likely emerged around 1941 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1929 to 1952), subsequently diverging into three genogroups: B, C, and the now extinct genogroup A. Genealogical analysis revealed that diverse lineages of genogroup B and C (subgenogroups B1 to B5 and C1 to C5) have each circulated cryptically in the human population for up to 5 years before causing large HFMD outbreaks, indicating the quiescent persistence of EV-71 in human populations. Estimated phylogenies showed a complex pattern of spatial structure within well-sampled subgenogroups, suggesting endemicity with occasional lineage migration among locations, such that past HFMD epidemics are unlikely to be linked to continuous transmission of a single strain of virus. In addition, rises in genetic diversity are correlated with the onset of epidemics, driven in part by the emergence of novel EV-71 subgenogroups. Using subgenogroup C1 as a model, we observe temporal strain replacement through time, and we investigate the evidence for positive selection at VP1 immunogenic sites. We discuss the consequences of the evolutionary dynamics of EV-71 for vaccine design and compare its phylodynamic behavior with that of influenza virus.Enterovirus 71 (EV-71) is a member of the genus Enterovirus in the family Picornaviridae. Classified as human enterovirus species A (HEV-A) along with some group A coxsackieviruses (CV-A), EV-71 is a small, nonenveloped, positive-stranded RNA virus with a genome approximately 7,400 bases long and is genetically most related to CV-A16. EV-71 is divided into three major genogroups (denoted A, B, and C), and various subgenogroups within genogroups B and C.Since its first isolation in the United States in 1969 (71), EV-71 has been identified worldwide as a common cause of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in young children and infants. Large EV-71-associated HFMD outbreaks have been reported in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia and constitute a significant and emerging threat to global public health (9, 50, 62, 63). Although EV-71 infection manifests most frequently as a mild, self-limited febrile illness characterized by papulovesicular lesions on the hands, feet, oropharyngeal mucosa, and buttocks, a small proportion of acute infections are associated with fatal neurological symptoms, including brain stem encephalitis, aseptic meningitis, and poliomyelitis-like paralysis (4, 28, 47). Such cases of neurological disease with a high case fatality rate were first reported in Bulgaria in 1975 (21) and Hungary in 1978 (52). However, large HFMD epidemics with high mortality rates resurfaced 2 decades later, in Malaysia in 1997 (2, 13, 16, 43) and Taiwan in 1998 (33, 42). Following these outbreaks, the Asia-Pacific region has experienced more frequent large-scale EV-71-associated HFMD epidemics—most with a high incidence of neurotropic infections and significant case fatality rates—and the virus has attracted global attention (3, 5, 14, 15, 18, 37, 46, 48, 55, 57, 74, 81, 82). Intriguingly, almost all outbreaks reported in the Asia-Pacific region during the last decade were caused by previously undefined EV-71 subgenogroups, raising questions about their origin, genetic complexity, and epidemiological behavior.The icosahedral particles of EV-71, which are structurally similar to those of other members of the Picornaviridae, consist of structural proteins (capsid proteins VP1 to VP4) assembled as pentameric subunits (66). The VP1 protein is highly exposed and usually targeted by host neutralizing antibodies, predisposing the VP1 gene to constant immune selective pressure. This selection may drive the adaptive evolution of the capsid region of many enteroviruses, possibly resulting in amino acid fixations in virus populations (19, 45, 79). Because the VP1 gene of enteroviruses is thought to play an important role in viral pathogenesis and virulence (10, 12, 30), understanding the tempo and mode of evolution of the capsid protein can provide new insights into the epidemiological dynamics of EV-71 that may be useful in predicting the genetic basis and periodicity of future EV-71 epidemics and in facilitating the development of an effective EV-71 vaccine candidate.In this study, we investigated the evolutionary dynamics and genetic history of EV-71. We estimate the dates of emergence of various subgenogroups identified in recent HFMD outbreaks. Using recently developed Bayesian methods of evolutionary analysis, we estimate the divergence time of EV-71 from its closely related ancestor CV-A16, thereby providing a date of origin for EV-71. We also reconstruct the global population dynamics of EV-71 over the past 40 years, revealing temporal trends in genetic diversity within and between major epidemics. Finally, despite finding little evidence of positive selection in the VP1 capsid protein, we observed a pattern of continuous strain and lineage replacement through time, with strong selective pressure detected at several potentially immunogenic sites. The impact of EV-71 evolution on the development of an EV-71 vaccine is also discussed.