Classification of cervical smears with discordance between the cytologic and/or histologic ratings

The problems of diagnostic variability between certified cytotechnologists was studied. Three cytology laboratories submitted a total of 28 cervical smears that had a discordance between the cytologic and/or histologic ratings. Eight independent cytotechnologists provided blind readings on each slide, expressed as "absence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)" to "CIN III." The median rating was absence of CIN or CIN I for 8 slides, CIN II for 5 and CIN III for 15. With a kappa value greater than 0 reflecting agreement beyond chance expectation and a value of 0.40 indicating fair agreement, the kappa value for 8 X 28 ratings was 0.36 (P = .0001), with a 90% confidence interval (CI) between 0.34 and 0.37. The kappa value was 0.14 (P = .10), with a 90% CI between 0.10 and 0.18, on a subsample of nine smears with two or more positive cytology diagnoses but a negative histology. Sixteen of the 28 slides represented cases of histologically proven cancer. Treating cytologic diagnoses of CIN II and CIN III as positive, the sensitivity of the cytologist with reference to histology varied between 71% and 86% while the specificity ranged from 18% to 62%. The positive predictive value was 1/2.5 to 1/1 and the negative predictive value was 1/6 to 1/1. The predictive power (true positives/false positives) ranged from 1.0 to 2.2. The cytodiagnosis of these cervical smears from cases of discordance thus exhibited limited reliability. Standardization of the relevant cytologic knowledge and its routine application is needed to improve the level of performance.