Spatial complexity in fragmenting Amazonian rainforests: Do feedbacks from edge effects push forests towards an ecological threshold? |
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| Institution: | 1. Percy FitzPatrick Institute, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, Cape Town 7701, South Africa;2. Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-7315, United States;3. Center for Latin American Studies, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States;4. The Natural Capital Project, c/o NOAA NW Fisheries Science Center, 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle, WA 98112, United States;1. School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Road, Nanjing 210023, PR China;2. Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, NL-6700 AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands;3. Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK;4. Systems Ecology, Department of Ecological Science, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;5. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany;6. Resource Ecology Group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, NL-6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands;1. MIT, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, 77 Mass. Ave., Rm. 54-410, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States;2. Lowell Observatory, 1400 W. Mars Hill Rd., Flagstaff, AZ 86001, United States;3. The Southern African Large Telescope and South African Astronomical Observatory, Cape Town 0735, South Africa;4. The CHARA Array of Georgia State University, Mount Wilson Observatory, Mount Wilson, CA 91023, United States;5. Williams College, 33 Lab Campus Dr., Williamstown, MA 01267, United States;6. Dept. de Astronomía, Universidad de Chile, Casilla 36-D, Santiago, Chile;7. Center for Mathematical Modelling, Universidad de Chile, Avenida Blanco Encalada 2120, Piso 7, Santiago, Chile;8. Department of Physics & Space Sciences and Ortega 0.8 m Telescope at the Olin Observatory, Florida Institute of Technology, 150 W. University Blvd., Melbourne, FL 32901, United States;1. Department of Informatics, King''s College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS, UK;2. Angel House, Marsh Lane, Saundby, Retford DN22 9ES, UK |
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| Abstract: | Deforestation and resulting landscape fragmentation are important concerns in many tropical areas. Deforestation is a complex process with many potential feedback loops, many of which are ignored in models that attempt to interpolate forest loss based on past deforestation rates. In addition, most ecological studies of the impacts of deforestation have focused on landscapes that are already fragmented. These studies ignore the fact that edge effects, such as anthropogenic fire, reach their maximum well before habitat connectivity is lost and may create positive feedbacks that result in further fragmentation. We developed a simple model to explore the potential influence of edge effects on fragmentation rates and used remotely sensed data from the MAP (Madre de Dios, Acre, and Pando) region of the Brazilian Amazon to parameterize the relationships of interest. Under reasonable real-world parameter combinations, edge effects can have a significant impact on deforestation rates, supporting the hypothesis that the true tipping point in a forest to pasture regime shift occurs earlier (i.e., ∼50% forest loss) than analysis of a loss in connectivity would suggest (i.e., ∼60% forest loss). Our results have important implications for understanding deforestation, edge-driven processes, regime shifts, and the management of complex pattern-process relationships. |
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