Suitable areas for the invasion expansion of Xylocopa bees in South America

The introduction of exotic species into native ecosystems can be a cause for concern when those species are invasive. Invasive species cause ecological problems and have socio-cultural impacts on human health and the economy; for example, invasive bees may negatively impact their introduced ecosystem by spreading diseases or outcompeting native pollinators. Xylocopa spp. bees are diverse and distributed throughout the Neotropics. However, Xylocopa augusti (Lepeletier, 1841) and Xylocopa splendidula (Lepeletier, 1841) are not native to Mediterranean Chile. This study aimed to evaluate the invasive potential of these exotic species and predict the potential macroecological effects of their invasions. We also aimed to pinpoint possible distributions for these species throughout South America. We correlated biogeographic occurrence data with climatic variables for each species to model their potential distribution in both current and future scenarios. The models provide strong evidence that both species are changing their distributions: their ranges are expanding towards western South America, particularly Bolivia, Chile and Peru. We demonstrate an increase in niche overlap between these species and show there are new geographic areas vulnerable to the establishment of these invasive bees under current and future climate conditions. These data suggest that these bees may adapt their geographic distribution as the climate changes and pose a threat to native pollinators in new geographic areas.