气候变化背景下青藏高原藏羚羊生境时空格局演变

气候变化可能导致物种分布范围变化甚至导致物种灭绝。为了解气候变化对青藏高原旗舰种和濒危种-藏羚羊（Pantholops hodgsonii）的潜在分布区影响，收集了316个藏羚羊实际点位分布数据和70个文献点位分布数据与温度季节性变化（Bio4），海拔，最干月降雨（Bio14）等9个影响因子，采用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）进行建模，预测SSP126、SSP585极端压迫情景和SSP245中间压迫情景下的T1（2001-2018年），T2（2021-2040年），T3（2041-2060年），T4（2061-2080年），T5（2081-2100年）5个时期的潜在分布区。研究结果表明：（1）在不同气候变化情景下，藏羚羊核心生境主要分布在可可西里、羌塘、阿尔金国家级自然保护区和三江源国家公园；（2）温度季节性变化（Bio4）和海拔被认为是最关键的两个环境因子；（3）随着温室气体排放强度的增强，藏羚羊的核心区生境向高海拔和高纬度地区扩张；（4）有43.18%的保护空缺区在保护区外，未受到有效保护。总之，研究藏羚羊的地理分布对于气候变化的响应与适应，根据适宜生境演变规律做出有效的保护措施，对藏羚羊种群的长期监测、保护、有效管理甚至重建具有重要现实意义。

Spatial-temporal pattern changes of Tibetan antelope's habitats on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau under climate change scenarios

Climate change may lead to the species'' distribution change and even its'' adaptation or extinction. Aiming to understand the potential distribution of the flagship and the endangered species of Tibetan antelope (Pantholops Hodgsonii) on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) due to climate change, this study collected 316 geographic distribution points of Tibetan antelope distribution data based on field survey and 70 distribution points from the publications from January 2000 to January 2022. We selected 9 factors and used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate potential distribution of the Tibetan antelope in T1 period (from 2001 to 2018), T2 period (from 2021 to 2040), T3 period (from 2041 to 2060), T4 period (from 2061 to 2080), and T5 period (from 2081 to 2100). We predicted the effects of climate changes on the Tibetan antelope distribution and habitat quality which were analyzed under SSP126, SSP585 extreme concentration scenarios and SSP245 intermediate concentration scenarios. Results showed that:(1) core habitats of the Tibetan antelope mainly located in Hoh-xil, Change Tang, Altun Mountain National Nature Reserve, and Sanjiangyuan National Park; (2) The seasonal variations in temperature (Bio4) and elevation were the most critical environmental factors to affect distribution of the Tibetan antelope; (3) With increasing of greenhouse gas emissions intensity, core habitats of Tibetan antelope expanded to areas with higher elevation and latitude; (4) Nearly 43.18% of Tibetan antelope''s core habitats were location outside of protected areas without effective conservation. In total, research on the geographical distribution of Tibetan antelope in response and adaptation to climate change has realistic significance for long term monitoring, population protection, effective management and reconstruction of suitable habitats for wildlife.