厦门海湾型城市发展累积生态效应动态评价

港湾地区的快速城市化使港湾湿地生态系统及其生产功能和服务功能发生急剧改变并在时间和空间上产生累积效应。以具有典型意义的厦门港湾湿地为研究对象，采用系统动力学方法，定性分析系统因子因果反馈关系，筛选港湾湿地水动力环境、水质环境、生物生态环境、地形地貌、景观环境作为厦门海湾型城市发展的累积生态效应指示因子。通过调整模型的相关政策变量及组合，仿真模拟了不同发展策略下厦门港湾湿地的累积生态效应，并结合灰色评估模型对累积生态效应进行量化，得出不同发展策略的累积生态效应指数，并对模型进行了模型验证与敏感性分析。设计三大未来发展情景，即基准情景（BS）、发展规划情景（S1）、生态城市发展情景（S2）。模型模拟结果表明：基准情景下2020年厦门城市发展对港湾湿地的累积生态效应指数为0.61;发展规划情景下对港湾湿地的累积生态效应指数为0.37;生态城市发展情景下对港湾湿地的累积生态效应指数为0.30，相对基准情景下可减少累积生态效应50%，建议厦门市按照海湾型生态城市模式进行发展。

Dynamic assessment of the cumulative ecological effects from Xiamen Bay city development

Rapid urbanization in the Xiamen Bay area has greatly changed ecosystem productivity and other eco-service function of wetland ecosystems. A simulation model was developed based on system dynamics and analytical causal-loop feedbacks to quantify the cumulative ecological effects of the change for the Xiamen Bay City, including its hydrological dynamics, water quality, ecological characteristics, geomorphic features, and landscape structure. The cumulative ecological effects of alternative policies were simulated by adjusting the decision-making variables and their combinations, and quantitatively assessed by using the grey model (GM), followed by model verification and sensitivity analysis. The consequences of three scenarios for future management were simulated and compared, including baseline scenario (BS), the eleventh Five-Year Plan scenario (S1), and the eco-city scenario(S2). The cumulative ecological effects indices were 0.61, 0.37, and 0.30, respectively, for the BS, S1, and S2 scenario. The cumulative ecological effects under S2 scenario was 50% of the BS scenario. Consequently, we recommend Xiamen adopt the eco-city (S2) model for its future development.