Simulated climate change impacts on fluxes of carbon in Norway spruce ecosystems along a climatic transect in Sweden

A simulation study based on recent regional climate scenarios for Sweden investigated possible changes in carbon (C) dynamics and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of Swedish Norway spruce forest ecosystems. Four sites, representative of well-drained soils in four regions, were included. Stand development was simulated for a 100-year rotation period using a coupled model describing abiotic and biotic processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Two IPCC climate change scenarios, corresponding to a mean annual temperature increase of about 2°C (A2) or 3°C (B2) from the reference period 1961–1990 to a new period 2061–2090, were considered. Annual maximum snow depth decreased with the increase in air temperature, whereas maximum soil frost depth and mean annual soil temperature showed only small changes, especially for the sites in northern Sweden. Simulations suggested that in the warmer climate, gross primary production (GPP) increased by 24–32% in northern Sweden and by 32–43% in the south. In the north, the increase was related to the combined effect of air and soil temperature extending the growing season, whereas in the south it was mainly governed by increased N availability due to increased soil temperature. NEE increased by about 20% (A2) or 25% (B2) at all sites, more or less solely due to increased accumulation of C in the tree biomass (including harvest residues), since changes in soil C were small compared with the current climate. Both light use efficiency and water use efficiency were improved in the future climate scenarios, despite increases in atmospheric CO₂ not being considered.