生态-经济发展情景下内蒙古宏观生态系统模拟与分析

内蒙古自治区是我国北方面积最大、种类最全的生态功能区,是我国北方的重要生态屏障,其宏观生态系统状况不仅关系民众生存和生计,而且关系华北、东北、西北乃至全国的生态安全。构建了1990、2000及2015年3期宏观生态系统格局与影响因子数据集;融合区域生态系统发展规划,设置了基准、生态-经济协同发展和生态-经济权衡发展三种情景;应用土地利用均衡分析模型,模拟了3种情景下2025年及2035年内蒙古六大类生态系统结构与空间格局变化。结果表明：在延续历史发展趋势的基准情景和注重经济发展的生态-经济权衡发展情景下,草地和农田生态系统在2035年均无法恢复至2000年的水平,宏观生态系统结构难以达到规划目标;在注重生态保育的生态-经济协同发展情景下,草地、森林与湿地生态系统面积增长较大,符合内蒙古构建中国北方生态屏障的战略定位。从空间上看,农田生态系统面积的减少主要集中在农牧交错带地区,该区域的退耕还草构成了草地生态系统增加的主要来源;草地生态系统面积扩张还分布在近十年来发生草地退化的区域,这与近年来通过实施"京津风沙源治理"、"草原奖补政策"等生态工程建设后内蒙古自治区原有退化的草地生态系统在逐渐恢复的趋势相吻合;森林生态系统面积增加主要集中分布在大兴安岭等几个植被恢复地;城市生态系统主要以原有城镇居民点为中心,在其周边区域呈扩散式增长,特别是在采矿场、工业用地、交通沿线附近城镇面积增加较为显著;荒漠生态系统的缩减主要发生在与其它生态系统的交界处,这与开发利用的便利性、原有生态系统的可开发潜力等密切相关。研究表明,生态-经济发展情景下的宏观生态系统的空间显性模拟是区域国土空间规划和可持续发展的重要科学依据。

Scenario-based simulation and analysis of future terrestrial ecosystem changes in Inner Mongolia under different ecological-economic development pathways

The Inner Mongolia autonomous region is the largest ecological functional area and a key ecological barrier in northern China. The condition of its macro-ecosystem affects not only human survival and livelihood but also the ecological security of northern, northeastern, and northwestern China, and even the entire country. In this study, a dataset was constructed firstly based on the patterns and impacting factors in the Inner Mongolia macro-ecosystem in 1990, 2000, and 2015. Then, the regional socio-economic and ecosystem development plans were introduced as reference to set up three scenarios:business as usual scenario (baseline, continuing the historical development trend), coordinated ecological-economic development scenario (prioritizing ecology), and ecological-economic trade-off scenario (prioritizing economics). A land-use equilibrium analysis model was applied to simulate the changes in the structure and spatial pattern of six types of terrestrial ecosystem in Inner Mongolia in 2025 and 2035 under three scenarios. The quantitative results showed that under the baseline and trade-off scenarios, grassland and farmland ecosystems would be unable to recover to 2000 levels by 2035, and planning targets for the macro-ecosystem structure would not be met. Under the coordinated development scenario, with an emphasis on ecological conservation, the area of grassland, forest, and wetland ecosystems would increase significantly. This would be in line with the goal of strategically developing Inner Mongolia as an ecological barrier in Northern China. From a spatial perspective, future shrinkage of farmland ecosystems will be concentrated mainly in farmland-grassland ecotones; these "grain-to-green" regions will also constitute the main areas of grassland ecosystem growth. Grassland ecosystem expansion will also be distributed in the region of previously degraded grassland in recent ten years. This is consistent with the trend that the previously degraded grassland ecosystem in Inner Mongolia is gradually recovering after the implementation of ecological projects such as "Control of Sources of Sandstorms in Beijing and Tianjin" and "Grassland Reward and Subsidy Policy" in recent decades. Forest ecosystem growth will be concentrated in a few regions such as the Greater Hinggan Mountains. Urban ecosystem sprawl will be concentrated in the surrounding regions of existing urban settlements, especially the towns close to the mining fields, industrial lands, and traffic lines. Changes in desert ecosystems will occur mainly at their borders with other ecosystems, which is highly related to the convenience of development and utilization, and the exploitability potential of the neighboring ecosystems. Finally, spatial-explicitly scenario-based simulation of macro-ecosystem provides important scientific basis for regional land space planning and shed light on regional sustainable development.