闽江流域生境质量时空演变特征与预测研究

流域生境是生物生存和可持续发展的物质基础与环境保障，土地利用变化是影响生境质量的重要因素，分析土地利用与区域生境质量时空演变特征，对区域生物多样性保护与土地可持续利用具有重要意义。以闽江流域为研究区，基于2000-2015年的土地利用空间数据，构建CA-Markov模型模拟2025-2040年现有发展与生态保护情景下土地利用空间数据，利用InVEST模型分析2000-2040年生境质量空间格局。结果表明：（1）闽江流域森林覆盖率较高，现状条件下水田、旱地、针阔混交林、灌木林、草地与湿地面积呈下降趋势，其中草地减幅最大，达44.64%，针叶林、阔叶林、水域、建设用地、交通用地、采矿场与裸地面积呈上升趋势，其中交通用地涨幅最大，达到227.27%；模拟的土地利用Kappa系数达89.09%，模拟结果较好，生态保护情景在未来土地利用格局优化上优势明显。（2）研究期内闽江流域总体呈现较高的生境质量，基本维持在0.82的水平，城乡建设用地区域是生境质量低值的主要分布区，福州与长乐分布有最大的生境质量低值聚集区；生境质量分布与地形条件存在一定相关性，低值区多为海拔较低的区域。（3）2000-2015年闽江流域生境质量总体呈现衰退趋势，且降幅逐期升高，最高达0.24%；现有发展情景下降的趋势未得到有效缓解，生态保护情景下降趋势逐步有效缓解，同时生境质量为优等的栅格数量占比最大，最高达87.42%。（4）闽江流域上中游区域生境水平较下游高，现有发展情景下这种差距出现扩张趋势，生态保护情景下各区域则基本维持住2015年的生境质量水平。研究结果可为闽江流域土地资源可持续利用与生物多样性保护提供科学依据和决策参考，促进区域可持续发展。

Temporal-spatial variation characteristics and prediction of habitat quality in Min River Basin

Watershed habitat quality is the material basis and environmental guarantee for biological survival and sustainable development, and land use change is the most important threat factor for habitat quality. Therefore, analyzing the temporal-spatial evolution characteristics of land use and regional habitat quality is of great significance to regional biodiversity conservation and sustainable land use. In this study, took Min River Basin as the research area, based on the spatial data of land use from 2000 to 2015, a CA-Markov model was constructed to simulate the spatial data of land use under the existing development and ecological protection scenarios from 2025 to 2040, and the InVEST model was used to analyze the spatial pattern of habitat quality from 2000 to 2040. The results show that:(1) The forest coverage rate of Min River Basin is relatively high under the current conditions, the area of paddy field, dry farm, theropencedrymion, shrubwood, grassland and wetland showed a downward trend, of which grassland presented the largest decrease with the rate, of 44.64%. The coniferous forest, broad-leaved forest, water area, construction land, traffic land, mining land, and bare land were on the rise. Among them, transportation land presented the largest increase, 227.27%. The simulated land use Kappa coefficient was 89.09%, showed that the simulation result was good, and the designed ecological protection scenario was outstanding at the future land use pattern optimization. (2) During the study period, the Min River Basin generally showed high habitat quality and it basically maintained at the level of 0.82. The construction land area was the main distribution area with low habitat quality in the study area, and the downstream Fuzhou and Changle had the gathering area of largest low-value habitat quality. The distribution of habitat quality had a certain correlation with topographical conditions, and the low-value areas were mostly areas with lower altitudes. (3) From 2000 to 2015, the habitat quality of Min River Basin generally showed a declining trend, and the rate of decline increased gradually, up to 0.24%. The declining trend of habitat quality under natural development scenarios was not effectively alleviated. It was obtained under ecological protection scenarios, and the proportion of grids with the highest quality habitats was the largest with the highest proportion of 87.42%. (4) Habitat levels in the upper and middle reaches of Min River Basin were higher than those in the lower reaches. Under natural development scenarios, the gap of regional habitat quality would show an expanding trend. In the ecological protection scenario, each region would basically maintain the habitat quality level in 2015. The research results of this article can provide scientific basis and decision-making reference for sustainable utilization of land resources and biodiversity protection in Min River Basin, and promote regional sustainable development.