世界双遗产地生态安全预警体系构建及应用——以武夷山风景名胜区为例

基于遗产地内涵与标准的深入分析，提出符合世界遗产地保护目的的双遗产地生态安全概念，构建“压力-状态-调控”遗产地生态安全预警框架模型并筛选预警指标.在此基础上，以受自然和人类生态过程作用最强烈且频繁的武夷山风景名胜区为研究对象，引入可拓学中的物元模型理论对景区生态安全进行预警.结果表明： 景区生态安全预警准确率达84%；1997和2009年景区总体生态安全等级均处于Ⅰ级安全水平，即属于无警状态，但2009年生态安全系统风险增加，较1997年更趋于向更低水平的安全等级(Ⅱ)转变.2个时期处于敏感预警等级的单项预警“重警源”指标（限制因子）有所差异；1997-2009年间景区生态安全系统压力增加的同时其调控能力也在增强，但系统仍面临生态安全压力.人口密度、人口自然增长率、茶园面积指数、人均耕地面积、干旱程度、生态环保建设投入是制约景区未来（2009年之后）生态安全状态的主要限制因子.总体而言，景区生态安全状态较好（无警水平），但就个别预警指标而言，依然存在风险，需要针对上述限制因子采取有效防控措施，维持景区生态安全的良好状态.

System construction of early warning for ecological security at cultural and natural heritage mixed sites and its application: A case study of Wuyishan Scenery District.

This paper proposed a new concept of ecological security for protection by a comprehensive analysis of the contents and standards of world heritage sites. A frame concept model named “Pressure State Control” for early warning of ecological security at world heritage mixed sites was constructed and evaluation indicators of this frame were also selected. Wuyishan Scenery District was chosen for a case study, which has been severely disturbed by natural and artificial factors. Based on the frame model of “Pressure State Control” and by employing extension analysis, the matter element model was established to assess the ecological security status of this cultural and natural world heritage mixed site. The results showed that the accuracy of ecological security early warning reached 84%. Early warning rank wasⅠ level (no alert status) in 1997 and 2009, but that in 2009 had a higher possibility to convert into Ⅱ level. Likewise, the early-warning indices of sensitive ranks were different between 1997 and 2009. Population density, population growth rate, area index for tea garden, cultivated land owned per capita, level of drought, and investment for ecological and environmental construction were the main limiting factors to hinder the development of ecological security from 2009 to future. In general, the status of Wuyishan Scenery District ecological security was relatively good and considered as no alert level, while risk conditions also existed in terms of a few early warning indicators. We still need to pay more attention to serious alert indicators and adopt effective prevention and control measures to maintain a good ecological security status of this heritage site.