中国盛夏褐飞虱北迁过程的动态数值模拟

以控制和影响褐飞虱Nilaparvata lugens (Stal)迁飞过程的生理生态参数为依据，应用时空分辨率较高的中尺度数值预报模式-MM4和三维轨迹计算方法对我国盛夏褐飞虱的北迁过程进行了动态模拟。模拟结果及其与实测虫情资料的对比研究表明：（1）我国盛夏褐飞虱北迁的虫源地主要在22.5°N～27°N，110°E～116°E之间。（2）空中迁飞路径有三条：主径取32°方位角，副径分别取10°和75°方位角。（3）降落虫汇区有三个：主降区为长江中下游稻区，副降区分别为鄂西北、川东北稻区和浙东南、闽北稻区。（4）理论模拟与实际虫情普查分析比较吻合，说明该模型可作为迁飞害虫灾变机制研究的一个重要工具。

Dynamical and numerical simulations on the processes of Nilarparvata lugens long-distance migration northward during the midsummer in China

Based on the two migration events of Nilaparvata lugens(Stal) population, which had led to its serious infestation on rice in Changjiang valley, the main rice growing regions in midsummer of 1991，and introduced into certain physiological and ecological parameters controlling the migration， a dynamical and numerical prediction model with higher spatio temporal detectablity——MM4 and a means of calculating for 3-D trajectory were used to model the dynamic state of their migrating northward . The simulations and the comparisons between the simulations and the practical pests investigation showed: (1) The emigrating resource was an area from 22.5°N to 27°N on latitude and from 110°E to 116°E on longitude. (2) There were three spatial migratory paths, which consisted of a main path with an azimuth of about 32° and two assistant paths of about 10° and 75° respectively on azimuth.(3)There were three immigrating and descending regions with a main region situated in the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang valley, an assistant region joined northwestern Hubei with northeastern Sichuan and another assistant region enclosed southeastern Zhejiang and northern Fujian.(4)The conformity between the simulations and the practical pests investigation just illustrated that this model is an important means for the exploration of migratory pests' catastrophic mechanism.