三峡库区秭归县景观格局变化及模拟预测

基于1987和2002年秭归县TM影像，采用景观指数的研究方法，分析了1987—2002年间秭归县各景观类型的变化情况，并运用马尔柯夫模型对未来50年研究区的景观格局进行了模拟预测.结果表明：1987—2002年间，秭归县景观格局发生较大变化；不同景观类型面积的分配趋于均衡，疏林地面积大幅增加，旱田和灌木林地面积明显下降，景观总体的平均形状指数下降，表现为各景观集中连片化分布，且形状趋于简单，人为干扰的影响较明显；总体上，该区景观多样性和破碎化情况均有不同程度的改善.未来50年，研究区疏林地将呈现出快速增长的趋势，林地的增幅次之，旱田和灌木林地面积将不断下降，其他景观的变化幅度不大.该区景观格局变化的驱动力主要为县城搬迁和林业政策.

Landscape pattern change and its simulation forecast in Zigui County of Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

Based on the TM images of 1987 and 2002, the landscape pattern change of Zigui County from 1987 to 2002 was analyzed by using landscape index method; and the simulation forecast of this change in next 50 years was conducted by usi ng Markov model. The results showed that in 1987〖KG-*2〗-〖KG-*7〗2002, the lan dscape pattern of Zigui County changed dramatically. The area of sparse wood lan d increased greatly while that of upland and shrub land decreased obviously, and the distribution of the areas of different landscape types tended to balance. T he average shape index of landscape had an overall decline, which was represente d by the concentrated and connected distribution of different landscape types, s implification of landscape shape, and obvious human interference. As a whole, th e landscape diversity and fragmentation in Zigui County were improved to some ex tent. In next 50 years, the area of sparse wood land in Zigui would have a rapid increase, followed by that of forestland, while the areas of upland and shrub l and would be declining, and the other landscape types would have a less fluctuat ion in their areas. The main driving forces of the landscape pattern change in Z igui were the relocation of the County and the implementation of forestry polici es.