基于产业链视角的京津冀区域碳排放影响因素研究

随着京津冀一体化程度不断加深，产业交叉现象严重，深入研究京津冀区域各产业链路径碳排放的影响因素，对区域协同减排具有重要意义。使用环境扩展投入产出分析对2002—2017年京津冀区域消费端碳排放进行核算；利用结构分解分析识别京津冀区域碳排放的驱动因素；通过结构路径分解进一步从微观产业链层面追溯引起京津冀区域碳排放变动的关键路径及其关键因素。研究结果表明：资本形成是构成京津冀区域消费端碳排放的主要需求类别；经济规模和人口是促进碳排放增加的重要因素，碳排放强度对碳排放起到显著抑制作用，区域内产业结构、消费结构对北京市、天津市和河北省的碳排放影响存在差异；从产业链路径来看，不同碳排放驱动因素对京津冀区域不同产业链路径的影响大小和方向不同，应聚焦具体路径，实施上下游综合治理。

The influencing factors of carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from the perspective of industrial chain

Carbon emission is becoming one of the significantly environmental issues in the Beijing Tianjin -Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) urban agglomeration. However, the development of urban agglomeration, which is nested in complex trading networks, has promoted carbon transmission and transference within the urban agglomeration. Ignoring the intercity connections and the driving forces may intensify the carbon emission of Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration. To investigate the demand side carbon emissions and probe into the driving factors of embodied carbon emission along regional and industrial linkages within Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration, the environmentally extended input-output analysis was used to calculate the consumption-based carbon dioxide in the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration from 2002 to 2017. The driving factors and key paths of carbon emissions in the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration are identified by combining Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) and Structural Path Decomposition (SPD). The results show that capital formation is the main contributor to consumption-based carbon emissions in the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration. The SDA results show that economic scale and population are key factors in promoting the increase of carbon emissions, and emission intensity plays an important role in offsetting carbon emissions. Backward industrial linkage, consumption structural effects of self-produced intermediate products and consumption structure play different roles on carbon emissions in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province. Tracing the carbon emissions along the industrial chain, we found that the driving factors of carbon emissions have reversed impacts on different paths. The results may shed light on the targeted emission reduction policy design and synergetic emission reduction in Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration.