中国森林生态系统碳汇现状与潜力

巩固和提升森林碳汇,是实现中国“碳中和”目标的重要路径之一。研究总结梳理了近10年来有关中国森林碳储量及其变化的研究文献,一方面在于探明中国森林碳汇现状和潜力以及对实现“碳中和”的贡献,同时分析当前森林碳汇计量与模拟预测研究的差距与不足,更好地支撑国家碳中和实施路径与行动方案。通过整合分析,1999—2018年间中国森林生态系统碳储量年均增长量约(208.0±44.5)TgC/a或(762.0±163.2)TgCO₂-eq/a,其中生物质、死有机质和土壤有机碳库的年均增长量分别约为(168.8±42.4)TgC/a、(12.5±8.1)TgC/a和(26.7±10.9)TgC/a。此外,木质林产品和森林之外的其它林木碳储量分别增长(49.0±15.1)TgC/a和(12.0±11.1)TgC/a。预计中国乔木林生物质碳储量年变化量将从1999—2018年间的(145.9±38.3)TgC/a增长至2030—2039年间的(171.9±60.5)TgC/a,到2050—2059年间逐渐下降至(146.9±57.7)TgC/a。2050—2059年间中国森林生态系统碳...

The current and potential carbon sink in forest ecosystem in China

Conserving and enhancing forest carbon sinks is one of the important paths to achieve China''s carbon neutrality goal. This paper summarized the research literatures on China''s forest carbon stock and carbon stock change (CSC) in the past 10 years, with one aim to prove the current and potential forest carbon sink and its contribution to carbon neutrality, and the other aim to reveal the gaps and shortages in forest carbon sink simulation and prediction research, and to better support the national implementation pathways and actions to carbon neutrality. The results show that the mean annual CSC in China''s forest ecosystems during 1999-2018 was about (208.0±44.5) TgC/a or (762.0±163.2) TgCO₂-eq/a, among which the mean annual CSC in forest biomass, dead organic matter and soil organic carbon were (168.8±42.4) TgC/a, (12.5±8.1) TgC/a and (26.7±10.9) TgC/a, respectively. In addition, the carbon stocks in harvested wood products and trees outside forest in China increased by (49.0±15.1) TgC/a and (12.0±11.1) TgC/a during 1999-2018, respectively. The mean annual CSC of biomass in arbor forests in China will increase from (145.9±38.3) TgC/a during 1999-2018 to (171.9±60.5) TgC/a in 2030s, and then gradually decrease to (146.9±57.7) TgC/a in 2050s. By 2050s, the mean annual CSC in China''s forest ecosystems will reach (247.0±71.2) TgC/a or (905.2±260.8) TgCO₂-eq/a. The differences in the definitions of forests, data sources, estimation methods and parameters, and unreasonable assumptions in different studies resulted in a large uncertainty in the assessment and prediction results of China''s forest carbon stock and its changes. It is necessary to unify the land use classification and clarify the changes in forest area and its spatial distribution, comprehensively consider the impacts of land use change, climate change and human activity management, and to assess the dynamics of all carbon pools in forest ecosystem in the future, which will effectively support achieving China''s ambitious goal of carbon neutrality.