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Decision-making under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change |
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| Authors: | Polasky Stephen Carpenter Stephen R Folke Carl Keeler Bonnie |
| Institution: | 1 Department of Applied Economics & Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN 55108, USA 2 Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA 3 Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, PO Box 50005, SE-104 05, Stockholm, Sweden 4 Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, SE-106 91, Stockholm, Sweden 5 Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN 55108, USA |
| Abstract: | Global change issues are complex and the consequences of decisions are often highly uncertain. The large spatial and temporal scales and stakes involved make it important to take account of present and potential consequences in decision-making. Standard approaches to decision-making under uncertainty require information about the likelihood of alternative states, how states and actions combine to form outcomes and the net benefits of different outcomes. For global change issues, however, the set of potential states is often unknown, much less the probabilities, effect of actions or their net benefits. Decision theory, thresholds, scenarios and resilience thinking can expand awareness of the potential states and outcomes, as well as of the probabilities and consequences of outcomes under alternative decisions. |
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