| Abstract: | Recent constraints on supplies of the rare earth elements (REEs) have led to concerns about their long‐term availability as well as the consequences that shortages would pose for modern technology. To assess this situation, we apply a comprehensive “criticality” methodology to the REE: lanthanum (La); cerium (Ce); praseodymium (Pr); neodymium (Nd); samarium (Sm); europium (Eu); gadolinium (Gd); terbium (Tb); dysprosium (Dy); holmium (Ho); erbium (Er); thulium (Tm); ytterbium (Yb); lutetium (Lu); and yttrium (Y). Assessments are made on national (U.S. and China) and global levels for the year 2008. Evaluations of each indicator are presented and the results plotted in “criticality space” on a 0 to 100 scale. Over the medium term (5 to 10 years), supply risk (SR) for all REEs is moderate with minimal variation (62.8 to 65.1). Over the long term (10 to 100 years), SR is low (42.1 to 49.2). Environmental implications scores, reflecting the economic allocation of environmental burdens, range from 4.2 for La to 34.4 for Lu. Eu, Er, and Dy have the highest vulnerability to supply restriction (VSR) at the global level (50.6, 49.2, and 47.4, respectively), whereas Sm has the lowest (15.1). This is mainly a reflection of their substitution potential. Similarly, at the national level for the United States and China, Eu and Sm have the highest and lowest VSR scores, respectively, although there are notable differences in scores among the REEs and between countries. Although China's export restrictions render REE supplies inadequate to meet demand at present, our analysis indicates a lower criticality for REEs over the longer term than for a number of other industrially used metals. |
