大鹏湾反曲原甲藻种群动态机理模型辨识

建立了我国南海大鹏湾反曲原甲藻种群动态机理模型，在温度、盐度、溶解氧（ＤＯ）、可溶性无机磷（ＤＩＰ）、可溶性亚硝态氮、可溶性硝态氮和酸碱度（ＰＨ值）等７个因子的分析中，辨识出温度为反曲原甲藻的限制因子；种群数量变动中引入自回归平稳随机模拟，并建立３个站位６个层面的６个自回归与非线性回归联立模型，以动态递阶的方式对反曲原甲藻种群动态进行回代，研究模型对实测值的拟合结果，拟合率达８１．７％。

Identification of mechanism model on population dynamics of Prorocentrum sigmoides at Dapeng Bay or the South China Sea

A mechanism model for simulating the population dynamics of Prorocentrum sigmoides atDapeng Bay of the South China Sea is established. Among the factors such as temperature, salinity. dissolved oxygen (DO), dissolved inorganic phosphate (DIP), dissolvedinorganic nitrate and nitrite, and PH, the temperature is a limiting factor of P.sigmoidesgrowth. By applying hierachy to the back substitution and introducing auto-regression ordering into the model identification, a simultaneous regression model derived from six auto-regression and non-linear regression models is established. The fitting degree betweensimulated and observed data is 81. 7%.