甘肃马铃薯种植布局对区域气候变化的响应

基于甘肃省地面气象观测站1961—2008年气象观测资料和马铃薯生长条件,选择最佳小网格推算模型推算出500m×500m的高分辨率的网格序列;确立马铃薯种植适宜性气候区划指标,结合地理信息资料,运用GIS技术,开展马铃薯种植适宜性动态气候区划。结果表明:气候变化使马铃薯最适宜区和适宜区面积分别减小35%和3%,次适宜区和可种植区面积分别扩大18.5%和6.6%,不适宜区面积缩小2.0%。提出了马铃薯应对气候变化建议:各地应根据气候特点,调整作物布局;适当调整播种日期,躲避影响马铃薯产量的春霜冻、块茎形成期的高温危害及伏期干旱等;采取多种农业措施,扩大马铃薯种植面积,提高复种指数。预计随着未来气候进一步变暖,该地区的马铃薯生长发育、产量和结构布局将会继续受到影响,研究成果可为甘肃马铃薯生产以及适应气候变化提供科学参考依据。

Responses of potato planting allocation in Gansu Province of Northwest China to regional climate change

Based on the 1961-2008 meteorological observation data from ground meteorological stations and the growth conditions of potato across Gansu Province, the grid series with a high resolution of 500 m ×500 m was calculated by small grids reckoning models. The climatic allocation index for potato planting was established, and, in combining with geographic information and using GIS technology, the potato planting in the Province under gradual climate change was allocated. From 1961 to 2008, due to the climate change, the highly suitable and suitable planting areas of potato in the Province decreased by 35% and 3% while the sub-suitable and fair planting areas increased by 18.5% and 6.6%, respectively, and the unsuitable planting area reduced by 2.0%. According to the regional climate characteristics, it was suggested that the allocation of potato planting should be adjusted. The date of planting potato should be properly adjusted to escape the frost in spring, the high-temperature harm at tuber-forming stage, and the drought in summer. Various agricultural measures should be adopted, the area for potato planting should be enlarged, and multi-cropping index should be increased. It was expected that with the future global warming, the potato’s growth period, tuber yield, and planting allocation in the Province would be further affected. This study could provide scientific reference for the potato production and its adaptation to climate change in Gansu Province.