基于协整分析的安徽省能源消费碳排放库兹涅茨曲线

碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线研究,能预判碳排放拐点出现时间,可揭示出经济发展与碳排放之间的动态关系。依据IPCC碳排放计算方法,以能源消费数据为基础,对安徽省1995—2010年碳排放及碳排放强度进行了动态测度,借助EKC模型简化式构建了安徽省碳排放总量、人均碳排放量、碳排放强度的EKC模型,基于协整OLS回归方法对安徽省碳排放、碳排放强度EKC曲线进行了探析。结果表明:安徽省碳排放总量由1995年的4420.58×104t增加到2010年的11913.32×104t,人均碳排放量由1995年的0.74t增加到2010年的1.74t,均呈持续增长态势,碳排放总量,而碳排放强度由1995年的每万元2.44t持续下降至2010年的0.97t。安徽省碳排放EKC曲线呈N型,通过作散点图并添加趋势线表明,N型关系非常微弱,短期内EKC曲线不存在拐点,拐点出现时间为2027年;安徽省碳排放强度EKC曲线也呈N型,通过作散点图并添加趋势线表明,N型关系也非常微弱,短期内EKC曲线不存在拐点,而呈递减趋势;安徽省人均碳排放量不支持EKC曲线。研究结果有利于了解未来碳排放态势,从而为制定出相应的减排政策提供依据。

Kuznets curve of carbon emission from energy consumption in Anhui Province of East China based on co-integration analysis

The study of the environmental Kuznets curve of carbon emission can not only predict the inflection-point appearance time of carbon emission,but also reveal the dynamic relationship between economic development and carbon emission.According to the IPCC carbon emission calculation method and based on the energy consumption data of Anhui Province,a dynamic measurement was conducted on the carbon emission and its intensity in the Province from 1995 to 2010.By using the simplified EKC model,the EKC models of the total carbon emission,per capita carbon emission,and carbon emission intensity in the Province were established,and,based on the co-integration OLS regression method,the EKC curves of the total carbon emission and carbon emission intensity in the Province were analyzed.The results showed that the total carbon emission in the Province was increased from 44.2058 million tons in 1995 to 119.1332 million tons in 2010,and the per capita carbon emission was increased from 0.74 t in 1995 to 1.74 t in 2010,both of them showing a continuous growth trend.On the contrary,the carbon emission intensity per ten thousand RMB Yuan decreased from 2.44 t in 1995 to 0.97 t in 2010,showing a continuous reduction trend.The EKC curve of the carbon emission in the Province was N-shaped.The scatter diagram with trend lines indicated that the N-shaped relationship was very weak,no inflection point existed in EKC curve within a short term,but the inflection point would be appeared in 2027.Also,the EKC curve of the carbon emission intensity in the Province was N-shaped,the N-shaped relationship was very weak,and no inflection point existed in EKC curve within a short term while showing a declining trend.The EKC curve was not supported by the per capita carbon emission in the Province.The above results were conducive to understand the future trend of carbon emission,and provide a basis for developing appropriate emission reduction policies.