应用花粉分析预报板栗产量的研究

 1994～1996年河北省迁安县蔡园乡大气中板栗花粉散布特征研究表明，不同年份板栗花期有早有晚，大气中的花粉浓度变化悬殊；大气中板栗花粉浓度受花期气温和盛花末期前降水影响较大，受日照影响较小；盛花期花粉浓度与板栗产量的相关系数为0.998～0.999；根据两年相关关系建立的预报模式对第三年产量进行了预报，预报期比收获期提前2个月，预报结果最大误差5.7％，最小误差1.13％；多数误差均低于4％；运用花粉分析预报板栗和其它果品及农作物产量是一种投入少、预报期早、预报精度高的预测方法。

PREDICTING YIELD OF CASTANEA MOLLISSIMA WITH POLLEN CONCENTRATION

Studies on the pollen dissemination of Castanea mollisima in the air at the Caiyuan area, Qianan county indicated that blooming date of the plant differed among years, and the pollen concentration varied sharply with it. Pollen concentration in the air was deeply influenced by the air temperature during the blooming and also by the precipitation to the end of peak florescence, but it is little influenced by the sunshine. The correlation coefficient between the yield and the pollen concentration of C. mollissima during the peak florescence was 0.998～0.999. The predicting error of model based on two-year data was 5.7 % in maximum, 1.13% in minimum and less than 4% on average. The yield was predicted two months earlier than the harvest time. Estimating yield of C. mollissima or crops based on pollen concentration is a good predicting method with high precision and little cost, and much ahead in time.