Multi-extent analysis of the relationship between pteridophyte species richness and climate

Aim To determine the relationship between the distribution of climate, climatic heterogeneity and pteridophyte species richness gradients in Australia, using an approach that does not assume potential relationships are spatially invariant and allows for scale effects (extent of analysis) to be explicitly examined. Location Australia, extending from 10° S to 43° S and 112° E to 153° E. Method Species richness within 50 × 50 km grid cells was determined using point distribution data. Climatic surfaces representing the distribution and availability of water and energy at 1 km and 5 km cell resolutions were obtained. Climate at the 50 km resolution of analysis was represented by their mean and standard deviation in that area. Relationships were assessed using geographically weighted linear regression at a range of spatial bandwidths to investigate scale effects. Results The parameters and the predictive strength of all models varied across space at all extents of analysis. Overall, climatic variables representing water availability were more highly correlated to pteridophyte richness gradients in Australia than those representing energy. Their variance in cells further increased the strength of the relationships in topographically heterogeneous regions. Relationships with water were strong across all extents of analysis, particularly in the tropical and subtropical parts of the continent. Water availability explained less of the variation in richness at higher latitudes. Main conclusions This study brings into question the ability of aspatial and single‐extent models, searching for a unified explanation of macro‐scaled patterns in gradients of diversity, to adequately represent reality. It showed that, across Australia, there is a positive relationship between pteridophyte species richness and water availability but the strength and nature of the relationship varies spatially with scale in a highly complex manner. The spatial variance, or actual complexity, in these relationships could not have been demonstrated had a traditional aspatial global regression approach been used. Regional scale variation in relationships may be at least as important as more general relationships for a true understanding of the distribution of broad‐scale diversity.