Predicting potential distribution of the jaguar (Panthera onca) in Mexico: identification of priority areas for conservation |
| |
| Authors: | Clarita Rodríguez‐Soto Octavio Monroy‐Vilchis Luigi Maiorano Luigi Boitani Juan Carlos Faller Miguel Á Briones Rodrigo Núñez Octavio Rosas‐Rosas Gerardo Ceballos Alessandra Falcucci |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Estación Biológica Sierra Nanchititla, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Instituto Literario 100, Centro. 50000, Toluca, México;2. Dipartimento di Biologia Animale e dell’Uomo, Sapienza Università di Roma, Viale Università 32, 00185 Roma, Italia;3. Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, CH‐1015 Lausanne, Switzerland;4. Pronatura Península de Yucatán, A. C.;5. calle 32 #269, col. Pinzón II. Mérida, Yucatán, C.P. 97207, México;6. Centro Interdisciplinario para el desarrollo Integral Regional Unidad Oaxaca, Hornos. No. 1003, Col. Noche Buena, Oaxaca, C.P. 68043, México;7. Reserva de la Biosfera de Chamela–Cuixmala, La Huerta, Jalisco, C.P. 48869, México;8. Colegio de Postgraduados, Campus San Luis Potosí, Iturbide No. 73, Salinas de Hidalgo, San Luis Potosí, C.P. 78600, México;9. Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F. 04510, México |
| |
| Abstract: | Aim The jaguar, Panthera onca, is a species of global conservation concern. In Mexico, the northernmost part of its distribution range, its conservation status, is particularly critical, while its potential and actual distribution is poorly known. We propose an ensemble model (EM) of the potential distribution for the jaguar in Mexico and identify the priority areas for conservation. Location Mexico. Methods We generated our EM based on three presence‐only methods (Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Mahalanobis distance, Maxent) and considering environmental, biological and anthropogenic factors. We used this model to evaluate the efficacy of the existing Mexican protected areas (PAs), to evaluate the adequacy of the jaguar conservation units (JCUs) and to propose new areas that should be considered for conservation and management of the species in Mexico. Results Our results outline that 16% of Mexico (c. 312,000 km2) can be considered as suitable for the presence of the jaguar. Furthermore, 13% of the suitable areas are included in existing PAs and 14% are included in JCUs ( Sanderson et al., 2002 ). Main conclusions Clearly much more should be carried out to establish a proactive conservation strategy. Based on our results, we propose here new jaguar conservation and management areas that are important for a nationwide conservation blueprint. |
| |
| Keywords: | Consensus methods ENFA ensemble model jaguar conservation Mahalanobis Distance Maxent |
|
|
