The population dynamics of the large pine aphid,Cinara pinea (Mordv.)

The large pine aphid, Cinara pinea lives exclusively on Pinus species, where it feeds on the foliated shoots of the current and previous year. The paper describes the development of a computer model designed to simulate the aphid's population dynamics on saplings in the controlled environment of the laboratory, i.e. in the absence of natural enemies. The model was able to account for about 80% of the variation in aphid numbers within and between trees over a three month period. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the number of pine aphids is limited primarily by nymphal emigration, the operation of which is sensitive both to density and to plant quality as reflected in aphid growth rates. Of secondary importance are changes in reproduction acting through increased reproductive delay, again a result of altered growth rates and adult size. Development, too, has an important secondary influence. Contrary to expectation and conventional belief, however, alate production proved to be of negligible importance, either in limiting or regulating population numbers. Alatae are produced in too few numbers and for too short a period to significantly alter the pattern of population change.