Risk assessment: A model for predicting cross-species transmission of simian foamy virus from macaques (M. fascicularis) to humans at a monkey temple in Bali, Indonesia

Contact between humans and nonhuman primates (NHPs) frequently occurs at monkey temples (religious sites that have become associated with free-ranging populations of NHPs) in Asia, creating the potential for NHP-human disease transmission. In March 2003 a multidisciplinary panel of experts participated in a workshop designed to model the risk of NHP-human pathogen transmission. The panel developed a risk assessment model to describe the likelihood of cross-species transmission of simian foamy virus (SFV) from temple macaques (Macaca fascicularis) to visitors at monkey temples. SFV is an enzootic simian retrovirus that has been shown to be transmitted from NHPs to humans. In operationalizing the model field data, laboratory data and expert opinions were used to estimate the likelihood of SFV transmission within this context. This model sets the stage for a discussion about modeling as a risk assessment tool and the kinds of data that are required to accurately predict transmission.