The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al. (2002) |
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Authors: | Mike Lonergan John Harwood |
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Affiliation: | Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, The Observatory, University of St Andrews, Buchanan Gardens, St Andrews, Fife KY16 9LZ, UK;NERC Sea Mammal Research Unit, Gatty Marine Laboratory, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Fife KY16 8LB, UK |
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Abstract: | In 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) reappeared in the European harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population. This outbreak seems to have followed a similar pattern to the 1988 one which killed almost 60% of individuals in most localities. Harding et al. (2002) suggested that there is a relatively high (18%) risk that recurrent outbreaks of PDV could reduce the European harbour seal population by 90%. We show that incorporating the effects of observation error during population surveys and of the long‐term immunity of survivors of morbillivirus outbreaks indicate a much lower level of risk (<1%). This suggests that, while the immediate effects of the disease are dramatic, it is unlikely that recurrent epidemics will pose serious conservation problems for this species under current conditions. |
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Keywords: | Epidemiology epizootiology extinction risk mathematical model mortality rates phocine distemper virus population dynamics |
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