Response to Dyck et al. (2007) on polar bears and climate change in western Hudson Bay |
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| Institution: | 1. Canadian Wildlife Service, 5320 122 Street, Edmonton, AB, Canada T6G 3S5;2. Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada T6H 2E9;3. Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto at Scarborough, Scarborough, ON, Canada M1C 1A4;4. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Marine Mammals Management, 1011 E. Tudor Road, Anchorage 99503, AK, USA;1. AO Research Institute, Davos, Switzerland;2. CFC Hirslanden Cranio Facial Centre, Hirslanden Medical Centre, Aarau, Switzerland;3. University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia;1. Department of Marine Biology, Texas A&M University, Galveston, TX 77553, USA;2. Chesapeake Bay Biological Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Solomons, MD 20688, USA;3. NOAA/NMFS, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Newport, OR 97365, USA;1. Centre de Recherches Océanologiques (CRO), 29 Rue des Pêcheurs, BPV 18, Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire;2. Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Université Paris 06, IRD, Unité de Modélisation Mathématique et Informatique des Systèmes Complexes (UMMISCO), F-93143 Bondy, France;3. Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), Ifremer, UMR 6523, CNRS/IFREMER/IRD/UBO, Plouzané, France;4. Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (LEGOS), UMR 5566, CNES/CNRS/IRD/UPS, Toulouse, France;5. Laboratoire de Physique de l’Atmosphère et Mécanique des fluides (LAPA-MF), Université Félix Houphouet Boigny, Cote d’Ivoire;1. School of Biological Sciences, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, Colorado, 80639;2. Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, Colorado, 80639;3. Department of Chemistry, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523 |
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| Abstract: | The “viewpoint” article by Dyck et al. (2007) Dyck. M.G., Soon, W., Baydack, R.K., Legates, D.R., Baliunas, S., Ball, T.F., Hancock, L.O., 2007. Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: are warming spring air temperatures the “ultimate” survival control factor? Ecol. Complexity 4, 73–84. doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2007.03.002.] suggest that factors other than climate warming are responsible for a decline in the polar bear population of Western Hudson Bay. They propose: (1) that there is no evidence that the climate has warmed significantly in western Hudson Bay, (2) that any negative effects on the polar bear population likely result from interactions with humans (such as research activities, management actions, or tourism), (3) that studies suggesting climate warming could influence polar bear populations are confounded by natural fluctuations and (4) that polar bears will adapt to climate warming by eating vegetation, hunting other marine mammal species, and evolving new physiological mechanisms. In our examination of their alternative explanations, and the data available to evaluate each, we found little support for any.Research conducted since 1997 (when the last data were collected for the analyses in Stirling et al., 1999 Stirling, I., Lunn, N.J., Iacozza, J., 1999. Long-term trends in the population ecology of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in relation to climate change. Arctic 52, 294–306.]) continues to be consistent with the thesis that climate warming in western Hudson Bay is the major factor causing the sea ice to breakup at progressively earlier dates, resulting in polar bears coming ashore to fast for several months in progressively poorer condition, resulting in negative affects on survival of young, subadult, and older (but not prime) adults and reproduction. When the population began to decline, the hunting quota for Inuit in Nunavut was no longer sustainable, which in turn probably resulted in the decline accelerating over time as a result of overharvesting (Regehr et al., 2007 Regehr, E.V., Lunn, N.J., Amstrup, S.C., Stirling, I., 2007. Survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in relation to earlier sea ice breakup. J. Wildl. Manage. 71, 2673–2683.]). |
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