Structural validation of an individual-based model for plague epidemics simulation |
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| Authors: | Vincent Laperrière Dominique Badariotti Arnaud Banos Jean-Pierre Müller |
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| Affiliation: | 1. University of Pau – CNRS, UMR 5603, Avenue du Doyen Poplawski, 64000 Pau, France;2. University Louis Pasteur – CNRS, UMR 7011, 3 rue de l’Argonne, 67000 Strasbourg, France;3. CIRAD, UR GREEN, Campus international de Baillarguet, 34398 Montpellier, France;1. Cellular Immunology Laboratory, Department of Zoology, Life Science Building, University of North Bengal, PO: Raja Rammohunpur, Siliguri 734013, West Bengal, India;2. Chemical Signal and Lipidomics Laboratory, Department of Botany, University of Calcutta, Kolkata 700019, India;1. Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China;2. Laboratory of Analytical Microbiology, State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, China;3. Laboratory Animal Research Center, Academy of Military Medical Science, Beijing 100071, China;1. Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Colorado Denver, Campus Box 170, PO Box 173364, Denver, CO 80217-3364, USA;2. Department of Mathematics, Physics and Engineering, Mount Royal University, Calgary, Alberta T3E 6K6, Canada;3. CERFACS, 42 Avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 1, France;1. Department of Ecology, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Egyetem square 1, H-4032 Hungary;2. Hungarian Department of Biology and Ecology, Babe?-Bolyai University, Str. Clinicilor nr. 5–7, 400006 Cluj-Napoca, Romania;3. MTA-DE Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Research Group, Debrecen, Egyetem square 1, H-4032 Hungary |
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| Abstract: | Plague remains endemic in many countries in the world and Madagascar is currently the country where the highest number of human plague cases is reported every year. The investigation of causal factors, which command the disease dynamics in rodent populations, is a crucial step to forecast, control and anticipate the infection extension to humans. This paper presents simulation results obtained from an epidemic model, SIMPEST, designed to simulate bubonic plague in a rodent population at a high level of spatial and temporal resolution. We developed a structurally realistic individual-based model, mobilizing knowledge about fleas and rats behaviour, inter-individual plague transmission, and disease evolution in individual organisms, so that the model reflects the way the real system operates and to generate spatial and temporal patterns of disease spread. To assess the structural validity of our simulations, we perform sensitivity analyses on the initial population size and spatial distribution, and compare our results with theoretical statements, garnered from both previous modelling experiences and repeated field observations. We show our results are consistent with referents about population size conditions for a disease to invade and persist and the effect of the contact network on disease dynamics. |
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