| Abstract: | The evaluation of tradeoffs between technologies and policies for mitigation of environmental problems requires a systematic investigation of effects over the entire region under consideration. When attempting to model such large complex systems, issues such as usability, maintenance, and computing efficiency often become major modeling barriers. In this work a software prototype for integrating the services of computational models over the Internet, called DOME (distributed object-based modeling environment) is used to facilitate the construction of virtual Tokyo—a simulation platform for evaluating holistically the tradeoffs between various technologies for reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases. In making steps toward this ultimate goal, two models have been developed that use data defining spatial land-use distributions and the flows of goods expressed as an input-output table to provide information on the spatial and temporal characteristics of an urban region. Integrated, these models form a preliminary virtual Tokyo model when applied to Tokyo-specific databases. Given this platform, process models are applied to examine the effectiveness of using photovoltaic (PV) modules on the demand side to reduce conventional electric power generation and, thereby, also reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The results of introducing PV modules on the rooftops of buildings in Tokyo under various installation conditions are presented as a working example of the prototype. For full deployment on usable rooftop space, PV power generation could reduce carbon dioxide emissions from electric power generation by more than 12%. Future work will use the same methods as presented in this paper to examine cost, a critical determinant in the actual feasibility of PV module installation. |
