首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     


The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection
Authors:Paula Medone  Soledad Ceccarelli  Paul E. Parham  Andreína Figuera  Jorge E. Rabinovich
Abstract:Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach.
Keywords:Chagas disease   climate change   force of infection   climatic modelling   Rhodnius prolixus   Triatoma infestans
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号