Modelling the predicted geographic and economic response of UK cropping systems to climate change scenarios: the case of potatoes |
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| Authors: | A DAVIES T JENKINS A PIKE J SHAO I CARSON C J POLLOCK M L PARRY |
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| Institution: | Institute of Grassland and Environmental Research, Plas Gogerddan, Aberystwyth, Ceredigion SY23 3EB, UK;Dept of Geography, University College London, 26 Bedford Way, London WC1H0AP, UK;Welsh Institute of Rural Studies, University of Wales, Aberystwyth, Ceredigion SY23 3DD, UK;Jackson Environment Institute, 5 Grower Street, London WC1E 6HA, UK |
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| Abstract: | Geographical changes in suitability in England and Wales for the cultivation of potatoes under a climate change scenario were predicted for the years 2023 and 2065 by integrating a climate database (1951-80) with climate-driven crop growth models. Initially, model outputs were produced as point values (meteorological site locations) of predicted potential yields for current crop production. The model outputs were validated statistically using actual crop yield figures collated from bibliographic analysis. The most suitable model was run again incorporating projected temperature and precipitation changes for 2023 and 2065. These outputs were then used to predict possible economic changes to farm profitability and general market trends. Results indicated that, although yields may rise, gross margins for maincrop and especially early potatoes may also rise due to shifts in production, to a fall in overall potato output and to price increases. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change scenarios growth models potatoes gross margin |
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