Impact of climatic fluctuations on Characeae biomass in a shallow,restored lake in The Netherlands

External phosphorus load to a wetland with two shallow lakes in the Botshol Nature Reserve, The Netherlands, was reduced, resulting in a rapid reduction of phytoplankton biomass and turbidity, and after 4 years, explosive growth of Characeae. The clear water state was unstable, however, and the ecosystem then alternated between clear, high-vegetation and turbid, low-vegetation states. A model of water quality processes was used in conjunction with a 14-year nutrient budget for Botshol to determine if fluctuations in precipitation and nutrient load caused the ecosystem instability. The results indicate that, during wet winters when groundwater level rose above surface water level, phosphorus from runoff was stored in the lake bottom and banks. Stored phosphorus was released the following spring and summer under anaerobic sediment conditions, resulting in increased phytoplankton density and light attenuation in the water column. During years with high net precipitation, flow from land to surface water also transported humic acids, further increasing light attenuation. In years with dry winters, the phosphorus and humic acid loads to surface water were reduced, and growth of submerged macrophytes was enhanced by clear water. Thus, the temporal pattern of precipitation and flow from land to water gave a coherent, quantitative explanation of the observed dynamics in phosphorus, phytoplankton, turbidity, and Characeae. Global warming has caused winters in The Netherlands to become warmer and wetter during the last 50 years, increasing flow from land to water of humic acids and phosphorus and, ultimately, enhancing instability of Characeae populations. In the first half of the 20th century interannual variation in precipitation was not sufficient to cause large changes in internal P flux in Botshol, and submerged macrophyte populations were stable.