气候变化对祁连山蒙古扁桃潜在适生区的影响

气候变化将改变物种的生存环境,影响其分布范围,甚至威胁到某些物种的生存。本文通过ArcGIS软件和最大熵(MaxEnt)模型模拟蒙古扁桃(Amygdalus mongolica)在祁连山当前(1970—2000年)和未来(2081—2100年)2个气候时期背景下的地理分布格局,并分析其主要的环境影响因素。结果表明：(1)在当前气候条件下,蒙古扁桃在祁连山的东南部有较好的适生性;(2)未来4种气候情景下(SSP126,SSP245,SSP245和SSP585),蒙古扁桃在祁连山南部及东南部的适生区有消失的风险,扩张区主要集中在祁连山中北部的国家公园附近;(3)蒙古扁桃的分布格局主要向祁连山北部和高纬度地区迁移;(4)最湿月降水量(Bio13)、坡度(Slope)、最冷季度均温(Bio11)和最热月最高温(Bio5)的累计贡献率达到了80%以上,是影响蒙古扁桃适生分布的主要因子。本研究模拟、分析、预测了当前和未来不同情景下蒙古扁桃在祁连山的潜在分布及其变化,为祁连山生态及物种多样性的保护提供科学依据。

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Amygdalus mongolica in the Qilian Mountains

Climate change can change the environmental conditions, influence the species distribution, and even threaten the viability of some species. In this paper, we simulate and predict the geographical distribution and their main environmental factors of Amygdalus mongolica in the past (1970-2000) and future (2081-2100) climate conditions by using ArcGIS software and MaxEnt (Maximum entropy) model. The results showed that:(1) under the past climatic conditions, Amygdalus mongolica had good suitability in the southeast of Qilian Mountains. (2) The suitable areas of Amygdalus mongolic under four climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP245, SSP585) had the risk of disappearance in the south and southeast of Qilian Mountains, and the expansion areas were concentrated near the national park in the north-central Qilian Mountains. (3) The distribution pattern of Amygdalus mongolica would migrate to the northern and high altitude areas in Qilian Mountains; (4) The contribution of the wettest monthly precipitation (Bio13), slope (Slope), the coldest seasonal average temperature (Bio11), and the maximum temperature of hottest month (Bio5) reached more than 80%, which were the main factors affecting the distribution of Amygdalus mongolica. The study simulated, analyzed and predicted the potential distribution changes of Amygdalus mongolica in Qilian Mountains under past and future scenarios, providing scientific basis for the protection of ecology and biodiversity in Qilian Mountains.