Future of cancer incidence in Shanghai,China: Predicting the burden upon the ageing population |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering and Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development, School of Life Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China;2. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China;3. Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety (Fudan University), Ministry of Education, China;4. Fudan University Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences, Taizhou, China;5. Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden;1. Institute of Medical Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Informatics, Medical Faculty, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Germany;2. Section of Cancer Information, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert Thomas, 69372 Lyon Cedex 08, France;3. Department of Medicine, University of Zimbabwe School of Medicine, Harare, Zimbabwe;4. Department of Pathology, Maputo Central Hospital, Maputo, Mozambique;5. CTSU, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7FL, United Kingdom;6. African Cancer Registry Network, 267 Banbury Road, Oxford OX2 7HT, United Kingdom;1. Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, United States;2. Biostatistics and Computational Biology Branch, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Durham, NC, United States;3. Department of Nutrition, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, United States;4. Department of Biostatistics, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, United States;5. Biospecimen Processing Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, United States;6. Division of Oncology and Center for Childhood Cancer Research, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA, United States;7. Department of Biomedical and Health Informatics, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA, United States;8. Department of Pediatrics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States;9. Showers Center for Childhood Cancer and Blood Disorder, Akron Children’s Hospital, Akron, OH, United States;10. Department of Biostatistics, Colleges of Medicine and Public Health & Health Professions, University of Florida, Children’s Oncology Group Statistics & Data Center, Gainesville, FL, United States;11. Department of Otolaryngology, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO, 63110;1. Centre for Big Data Research in Health, University of New South Wales Sydney, NSW, Australia;2. Centre for Primary Health Care and Equity, University of New South Wales Sydney, NSW, Australia;3. School of Medicine, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia;4. National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales Sydney, NSW, Australia;5. Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, NSW, Australia;6. Cancer Voices NSW, NSW, Australia;1. Moffitt Cancer Center, Department of Health Outcomes and Behavior, 4115 E. Fowler Ave., Tampa, FL 33617, United States;2. Moffitt Cancer Center, Center for Immunization and Infection Research in Cancer, 12902 USF Magnolia Drive, Tampa, FL 33612, United States;3. Moffitt Cancer Center, Department of Cancer Epidemiology, 12902 USF Magnolia Drive, Tampa, FL 33612, United States;4. Moffitt Cancer Center, Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, 12902 USF Magnolia Drive, Tampa, FL 33612, United States;5. University of South Florida, Department of Family Medicine, 13330 USF Laurel Drive, Tampa, FL 33612, United States;6. University of South Florida, Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, 13201 Bruce B Downs Blvd, Tampa, FL 33612, United States;8. University of Florida, Department of Medicine, 1600 SW Archer Rd., Gainesville, FL 32608, United States;9. University of Florida Health, Department of Health Outcomes and Biomedical Informatics, 2004 Mowry Road, Ste 2245, Gainesville, FL 32610, United States;10. University of Florida Health, Cancer Population Sciences, 2004 Mowry Road, Ste 2245, Gainesville, FL 32610, United States;1. Division of Public Health, Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, University of Utah School of Medicine and Huntsman Cancer Institute, Salt Lake City, UT, USA;2. Department of Preventive Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA;3. Genomics Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan;4. Graduate Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan;5. Department of Otolaryngology, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan;6. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Sichuan, China;7. Department of Oral Surgery, West China Hospital of Stomatology, Sichuan University, Sichuan, China;8. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Jiangsu key lab of Cancer Biomarkers, Prevention and Treatment, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Personalized Medicine, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, China;9. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fujian, China;10. Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, China;11. Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, China;12. Department of Pathology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, China;13. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Liaoning, China;14. Department of Head & Neck Oncology, Henan Cancer Hospital, Henan, China;15. Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Nagoya City University Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Nagoya, Japan;p. Tisch Cancer Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York City, NY, USA;q. Department of Epidemiology and Center for Environmental Genomics, UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA, USA;r. National Office of Cancer Prevention & Control Cancer Institute & Hospital, and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China;1. Department of Haematology, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway;2. Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway;3. Department of Pathology, Akershus University Hospital, Lørenskog, Norway;4. The Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway;5. K.G. Jebsen Centre for B-Cell malignancies, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway |
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| Abstract: | AimThe age-specific cancer patterns have changed significantly over the last few decades in urban Shanghai. Predicting the cancer incidence in an ageing population can help to anticipate future resource needs, evaluate primary prevention strategies, and inform further research studies.Materials and MethodsAnnual cancer cases and population data from 1988 to 2013 were collected from Shanghai Cancer Registry. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the future cancer incidence with demographical changes from 2014 to 2025.ResultsFrom 1988 through 2013, the urban population aged < 65 years decreased by 19.5%, while the population aged ≥ 65 years increased by 58.4%. In the same period, cancer cases increased by 66.0% (from 8315 to 13,806) and 88.6% (from 7448 to 14,048) in these two populations, respectively. From 2014–2025, the population size is expected to decrease by an additional 29.6% in people aged < 65 years, while it will increase by an additional 68.3% in people aged ≥ 65 years. Correspondingly, the model predicts an 87.5% and 143.4% increase in cancer cases for these two populations, respectively. The most pronounced increase was found in thyroid cancer in both sexes, followed by prostate, kidney, and colon cancer in men. In women, lung, kidney, and cervical cancer in women was expected to increase.ConclusionsThe number of cancer cases in urban Shanghai, especially in older people, is expected to significantly increase in the next decade. Particular strategies targeting the elderly are required to combat the cancers. |
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| Keywords: | Cancer incidence Projections Ageing population Shanghai |
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