Probability models to assess the safety of foods with respect toClostridium botulinum

Summary The effectiveness of a preservative system to prevent the growth ofClostridium botulinum can be expressed as the probability (P) that not even a single spore will be able to grow and produce toxin. Commerical canning processes for foods have been based upon this principle since the early 1920s. The safety of many current food marketing concepts depends on product formulation, processing, packaging and distribution variables. Direct measurement ofC. botulinum growth in a food system is difficult. Researchers have relied upon bioassay for botulinum toxin detection and Most Probable Number (MPN) techniques to quantifyC. botulinum growth in experimental food systems. The methods used to estimateP for a single spore to initiate growth will lead to a discussion on the use ofP as a dependent variable in predictive models. Modeling the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic processing variables on food safety will be presented.