| Abstract: | The present communication is an attempt to describe the mode of propagation of AIDS epidemic and its control programme using a branching process as well as a birth-death and immigration model. A comparison of the project of AIDS control programme on the basis of its propagation by a continuous branching process model with that of a linear birth and death process with immigration shows a remarkable contrast. Branching process model shows that it is possible to control the propagation of the disease by suitably increasing the detection rate and lowering the infection rate. However, the propagation of AIDS models by birth and death Process with or without immigration shows that it is increasingly difficult to control the invasion of AIDS merely by controlling the birth, death and immigration parameters. |
