Predicting future invasion of an invasive alien tree in a Japanese oceanic island by process-based statistical models using recent distribution maps

Modelling and predicting the potential habitat and future range expansion of invasive species can help managers to mitigate the impact of such species. Because habitat suitability and the colonization process are key determinants of range expansion, inferences drawn from invasion patterns should be based on both attributes. To predict the potential habitat and expansion rate of the invasive tree Bischofia javanica on Hahajima Island, we used simultaneous models of habitat and dispersal to estimate the effect of environment and dispersal from the source population on the current distribution. We compared the fit and the estimated magnitudes of the environment and dispersal effects in the simultaneous models with those in habitat suitability and colonization kernel models. The values of Akaike’s information criterion for the simultaneous models were better than those of the habitat suitability and colonization kernel models, indicating that the current distribution of Bischofia was determined by both environment and dispersal. The simultaneous models predicted that the potential habitat of Bischofia would be larger than that predicted by the habitat suitability model. The potential habitat distribution and future invasion predicted by the simultaneous models will contribute to the development of specific landscape-scale management plans to control this invasive species.