| Abstract: | Effect-dose-sensitivity (EDS) models for entire ecosystems, like lakes and defined coastal areas, ought to play a paramount role for environmental sciences and management. The aim of EDS-models is to provide quantitative predictions relating operationally defined ecological effect parameters to compatible dose and sensitivity parameters. Empirically validated EDS-models provide a tool to simulate ecosystem effects of practically feasible remedial measures. The main objective of this paper is to give a compilation of existing EDS-models for aquatic ecosystems. The aim is not to repeat derivations and equations but to present some basic components of EDS-models, their presuppositions and applicability. Since, at present, there exist EDS-models for mercury, radiocesium and phosphorus in lakes and nutrients (N and P) in coastal areas, this compilation can be rather short. To the best of the authors knowledge, there exist no EDS-models (that meet the criteria given in this work) for other types of ecosystems (like forests, agricultural land, urban areas, etc.) or for other types of contaminants (like metals, acidifying substances, halogenated toxins, etc.). Another aim is to clarify the difference between traditional mass-balance models (i.e., dynamic models) and ecometric (i.e., statistical/empirical models) EDS-models, and to give examples of EDS-models based on both these modelling approaches, and techniques (dimensionless moderators) to link these two ways of modelling. The paper also gives examples of the practical use of EDS-models. A new ecometric EDS-model for nutrients in coastal areas, where the oxygen concentration of the bottom water is used as an effect parameter, is presented. The idea with this part is also to give the steps in the ecometric derivation of EDS-models. |
