The importance of weather and agronomic factors for the overwinter survival of yellow rust (Puccinia striiformis) and subsequent disease risk in commercial wheat crops in England

Disease survey data from 4475 randomly selected crops of wheat from England and Wales during 1985–2000 showed that yellow rust was most prevalent in 1988, 1989, 1990, 1998 and 1999. Disease severity on the upper two leaves was low as >95% crops had received foliar fungicides. Factors affecting the presence or absence (incidence) of yellow rust were investigated using random effects logistic regression (general linear mixed model). This enabled crop management (risk) variables for individual crops to be combined with meteorological variables measured at the county level. Two models are presented that analysed the effect of host genotype on incidence either solely through yellow rust resistance rating (Model 1) or by including both resistance rating (fixed effect) and cultivar (fitted as a random term) (Model 2). In both models, the percentage of crops with yellow rust decreased with cultivar disease resistance ratings ≥3, the occurrence of severe frosts (P < 0.05) of timing of fungicide sprays, previous cropping or summer weather. The use of risk variables associated with overwintering survival may help adjust fungicide inputs to seasonal risk.