Mathematical modeling of the dynamics of the intensity of the mutation process. II. Dynamic evaluation of the frequencies of hereditary pathology

Mathematical models were devised to evaluate the dynamics of hereditary pathology frequencies, based on registration of spontaneous abortions, congenital malformations and Down disease in the city of Angarsk during 12 years. The models provide an opportunity to detect the fact of the presence or absence of temporary tendencies. The average frequency of spontaneous abortions and units of hereditary pathology have not been changed for 12 years, the frequency of Down disease being decreased, while congenital malformations seem to change with certain periodicity. In cases of insufficient sample sizes, the prolongation of observation for a period of several years does not facilitate the task of construction of models which could adequately describe multifactor-conditioned processes.