Bayesian Nonparametric Estimation of the Probability of Discovering New Species |
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Authors: | Lijoi, Antonio Mena, Ramses H. Prunster, Igor |
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Affiliation: | Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Metodi Quantitativi, Università degli Studi di Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy lijoi{at}unipv.it |
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Abstract: | We consider the problem of evaluating the probability of discoveringa certain number of new species in a new sample of populationunits, conditional on the number of species recorded in a basicsample. We use a Bayesian nonparametric approach. The differentspecies proportions are assumed to be random and the observationsfrom the population exchangeable. We provide a Bayesian estimator,under quadratic loss, for the probability of discovering newspecies which can be compared with well-known frequentist estimators.The results we obtain are illustrated through a numerical exampleand an application to a genomic dataset concerning the discoveryof new genes by sequencing additional single-read sequencesof cdna fragments. |
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Keywords: | Bayesian nonparametrics Gibbs-type random partition Posterior probability of discovering a new species Sample coverage Species sampling |
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