Life history and reproductive capacity of Gammarus fossarum and G. roeseli (Crustacea: Amphipoda) under naturally fluctuating water temperatures: a simulation study

SUMMARY 1. Mathematical functions developed in long‐term laboratory experiments at different constant temperatures were combined with daily water temperatures for 1991–93 in eight Austrian streams and rivers to simulate the complex life histories and reproductive capacities of two freshwater amphipods: Gammarus fossarum and G. roeseli. The functions describe brood development times, hatching success, times taken to reach sexual maturity, growth, and fecundity. The sex ratio was assumed to be 0.5 and an autumn–winter reproductive resting period was based on observations of six river populations. Simulations included summer‐cold mountain streams, summer‐warm lowland rivers, watercourses fed by groundwater or influenced by heated effluents, and varying amplitudes of change within each year. 2. A fortran 77 computer program calculated growth from birth to sexual maturity of first‐generation females born on the first day of each calendar month in 1991, and the numbers of offspring successfully released from the maternal broodpouch in successive broods. At the 1991–93 regimes of temperature, individual G. fossarum released 127–208 offspring and G. roeseli released 120–169 in seven or eight successive broods during life spans of less than 2 years in six rivers. Life spans extended into a third year in the relatively cool River Salzach (mean temperature 7.5 °C). They were not completed in the very cold River Steyr (mean 5.6, range 2.5–7.9 °C), where G. fossarum produced five broods (totalling 120 offspring) and G. roeseli only two broods (totalling 28 offspring) in the 3‐year period. Except in the Steyr, some offspring grew rapidly to maturity and produced several second‐generation broods during the simulation period; in the warmest rivers some third‐generation broods were also produced. Birth dates, early or late in the year, influenced the subsequent production of broods and young, depending on temperature regimes in particular rivers. Total numbers of offspring produced by the second and third generations represent the theoretical reproductive capacities of G. fossarum and G. roeseli. Minimum and maximum estimates mostly ranged from 100 to 17 300, were larger for G. fossarum except in the warmest river (March), where temperatures rose above 20 °C for 56–78 days in summer, and largest (maximum 37 600) in the River Voeckla heated by discharge from a power‐station (mean 11.5 °C). Results from the simulations agree with preliminary assessments of relative abundances for G. fossarum and G. roeseli in several of the study rivers, but in some one or both species appear to be absent. On a wider scale, the present study confirms that G. fossarum is potentially more successful than G. roeseli in cool rivers but indicates that neither species is likely to maintain viable populations in cold rivers strongly influenced by snow and ice‐melt. 3. The potential impacts of future river warming by increases of 1, 2 and 3 °C, due to climate change, vary according to river site, date of fertilisation, the extent of temperature increase, and the species of Gammarus. For Austrian rivers with mean temperatures in the range c. 7–10 °C, future warming would result in modest changes in the life histories and reproductive capacities of both G. fossarum and G. roeseli; the former would find improved temperature conditions in watercourses that are currently very cold throughout the year, and both would find warm rivers less tolerable. 4. The high potential reproductive capacity of gammarids, with rapid production of numerous successive broods when sexual maturity is finally achieved, indicates adaptation to high mortality during the relatively long period of growth to sexual maturity, and provides scope for an opportunistic strategy of emigration from centres of population abundance to colonise new territory when conditions are favourable. Rapid expansion of populations is desirable to combat the effects of environmental catastrophes, both frequent and short‐term floods and droughts, and more long‐term climatic changes that have occurred several times in glacial–interglacial periods during the current Ice Age.