SIMPLOT: Simulating the impacts of fire severity on sustainability of eucalyptus forests in Portugal

SIMPLOT is a forest simulator for eucalyptus mainly driven by wood demand. It was developed to predict the evolution of the eucalyptus plantations in Portugal by combining forest inventory data with growth models taking into account the effect of different drivers such as wood demand, hazards occurrence and percentage of land use changes. The use of simulators for scenario analysis can be a powerful tool to explore policy options and to illustrate the consequences of different management alternatives. In the past years Portugal has been marked by extremely severe forest fires of great environmental impact. This paper shows simulation runs for two main scenario lines: the wood demand line and the wildfires line. In the first one, the simulator is used to identify a reasonable wood demand out of three different wood demands combined with a low/medium intensity fire scenario. The selected wood demand combined with three fire scenarios of increasing severity and a fourth one disregarding the existence of recent severe wildfires builds the second scenario line. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of different magnitudes of forest fires occurrence on the sustainability of eucalyptus plantations starting with NFI data gathered in 1997 during a horizon of 28 years. The simulations reflect a constant level of afforestation and deforestation and assume that no changes took place between different management alternatives. These simulations provide some insight on the impact of different wood demand and different magnitudes/frequency of severe wildfires: it is not only the number and magnitude of severe wildfires that make a difference, but it is also the number and magnitude of medium wildfires that follow an extremely severe one. Furthermore, the inter-annual variability of wildfire occurrence affects carbon stock and carbon sequestration in a different way. The occurrence of severe wildfires has an immediate effect on carbon sequestration. The lower values are registered in the same year in which the most severe wildfires occur. On the other hand, the occurrence of severe wildfires has more permanent consequences on carbon stocks than on carbon sequestration. The more severe and numerous are the wildfires the more difficult and at long-term will be to recover the carbon stocks in the forest. Results have also shown that if a higher wood demand compatible with the expected increase of pulp industry capacity would have been considered this would have had drastic impacts on eucalyptus forest sustainability due to overharvesting in order to meet the desired wood demand.