Factors affecting density-independent survival of an island population of tsetse flies in Zimbabwe

Analysis is presented of the factors affecting survival probability in populations of tsetse flies Glossina morsitans morsitans Westwood and G. pallidipes Austen (Diptera: Glossinidae) on Antelope Island, Lake Kariba, Zimbabwe. For mature male and female adult G. m. morsitans mean temperature (T_bar) accounted for 70 and 50%, respectively, of the variance in mark-recapture estimates of survival when the flies were not subjected to trapping. Saturation deficit (SD) only accounted for 36 and 33%, respectively. Maximum temperature (T_max) and SD accounted for 36–42% of the variance in male and female G. pallidipes. For the corresponding Moran curve estimates of the survival over all developmental stages, SD lagged by three weeks accounted for 61 and 41% of the variance for male and female G. m. morsitans, respectively, and 64 and 56% for G. pallidipes. The corresponding figures for plots against T_max were 44, 23, 23, and 21%, respectively. The same patterns were seen in the whole data set once allowance was made for the effect of trapping on survival and for an effect of season, correlated with an index of photosynthetic activity. For male G. m. morsitans there was a significant effect of saturation deficit, but not temperature, on immature survival. Decreased adult survival at high temperatures results from the need to feed more frequently and hence to take more risks per unit time. High saturation deficits result directly in reduced emergence of healthy flies from pupae.