Prevalence of pink-footed goose grubbing in the arctic tundra increases with population expansion

In the high-arctic archipelago of Svalbard, the pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) population has increased dramatically over the last decades. The population increase and the corresponding range expansion suggest a substantial increase in the potential for disturbance of the tundra caused by goose herbivory. In this study, we used surveys of pink-footed goose grubbing from two separate years (2007 and 2012) to examine the temporal changes in the prevalence of grubbing in central Spitsbergen. During this time period, the Svalbard-breeding pink-footed goose population had increased from 56,400 to 80,000 individuals. We compared grubbing prevalence between the 2 years, standardising the comparison by using a published model of habitat suitability for grubbing (Speed et al. in Ecosystems 12:349-359, 2009) as a covariate. Habitat suitability was a significant predictor of grubbing prevalence across both years, with higher grubbing probability in habitats predicted to be more suitable for grubbing. The probability of grubbing was on average 4 times higher in 2012 than in 2007. In 2007, all tundra habitats had a probability of <27 % of being grubbed whilst in 2012, there was a probability for being grubbed of more than 34 % in the least suitable habitat and around 59 % in the most suitable habitat. The increase in grubbing prevalence demonstrates a great need for monitoring the expanding pink-footed goose population and its impact on the tundra landscape.