The problem of precision and trend detection posed by small elephant populations in West Africa

The precision of elephant estimates from aerial sample surveys and dung counts is inversely proportional to abundance. West African elephant populations are already small, and the power of a monitoring programme to detect changes in abundance diminishes as the population shrinks in size. Thus it will be difficult to evaluate the effects on elephant numbers of new management policies in West Africa. The same will be true of monitoring schemes for antelope and primate populations that are hunted for bushmeat. Elephant estimates from dung counts are more precise than those from aerial sample surveys, and changes in elephant numbers are more likely to be detected in the subregion by dung counts than by aerial sample surveys.