Stochastic Dynamic Model for Estimation of Rate Constants and Their Variances from Noisy and Heterogeneous PET Measurements

Tissue heterogeneity, radioactive decay and measurement noise are the main error sources in compartmental modeling used to estimate the physiologic rate constants of various radiopharmaceuticals from a dynamic PET study. We introduce a new approach to this problem by modeling the tissue heterogeneity with random rate constants in compartment models. In addition, the Poisson nature of the radioactive decay is included as a Poisson random variable in the measurement equations. The estimation problem will be carried out using the maximum likelihood estimation. With this approach, we do not only get accurate mean estimates for the rate constants, but also estimates for tissue heterogeneity within the region of interest and other possibly unknown model parameters, e.g. instrument noise variance, as well. We also avoid the problem of the optimal weighting of the data related to the conventionally used weighted least-squares method. The new approach was tested with simulated time–activity curves from the conventional three compartment – three rate constants model with normally distributed rate constants and with a noise mixture of Poisson and normally distributed random variables. Our simulation results showed that this new model gave accurate estimates for the mean of the rate constants, the measurement noise parameter and also for the tissue heterogeneity, i.e. for the variance of the rate constants within the region of interest.