Unfavorable successional pathways and the conservation value of logged tropical forest

Conservation agencies are increasingly advocating that the survival of many tropical forest species may depend on disturbed forests and are directing scarce conservation resources to managing logged forests. This requires critical evaluation. In this 10-year study, we quantify tree community dynamics in three selectively logged areas harvested at different intensities and compare their recovery to two unlogged areas in Kibale National Park, Uganda. Over the 10 years, 527 of the original 4840 tagged trees (10cm DBH) died; while the mortality rate was highest in the heavily logged area, it was only significantly greater than one of the unlogged sites. The density of new trees varied significantly among areas being highest in the lightly logged area, but the density of new recruits in the heavily logged area did not differ from the unlogged areas. Overall, the more heavily logged areas had higher growth rates than the unlogged or lightly logged areas. However, there was no difference among areas in the magnitude of the change in basal area; and in both 1990 (20+ years post-harvest) and 2000 the basal area in the heavily logged area was significantly less than the unlogged areas. In general, findings from the heavily logged area suggest that the expectation that in logged areas a number of processes of forest regeneration will be accelerated relative to unlogged forest was not met. Thus, 30+ years after logging evidence suggests that forest recovery will be slower than expected. We also present evidence to suggest that the climate in the region is changing, which may account for changes in the population dynamics of certain species in the unlogged forests.