On mathematical modeling of critical variables in cancer treatment (goals: Better understanding of the past and better planning in the future)

Over the past 25 years stepwise improvement in the cure of disseminated cancers has been good, fair or very poor depending on the particular cancer one is discussing. “Cancer chemotherapy provides variably effective treatment for the majority of forms of human cancer and curative treatment for some 12 categories.” We have been slow to gain and learn how to apply quantitative information on the biologic phenomena that underlie the responsiveness, or lack of responsiveness, of many different cancers to single drugs and combinations of drugs delivered in different ways. I am of the opinion that continuing development and integration of rational biomathematical models based on principles already identified, and testing them for compatibility with much already available experimental and clinical data, will lead to models that will help in planning more effective treatment regimens for cancers now classified as moderately refractory or very refractory to chemotherapy. Some of the critical variables are considered briefly. My advice, for what it is worth, is “try to be sure that the biologic concepts that you use in modeling are almost as good as the arithmetic.”