Determining Important Parameters in the Spread of Malaria Through the Sensitivity Analysis of a Mathematical Model |
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Authors: | Nakul Chitnis James M Hyman Jim M Cushing |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Swiss Tropical Institute, Socinstrasse 57, Postfach, 4002 Basel, Switzerland;(2) Mathematical Modeling and Analysis, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA;(3) Program in Applied Mathematics, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA;(4) Department of Mathematics, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA |
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Abstract: | We perform sensitivity analyses on a mathematical model of malaria transmission to determine the relative importance of model
parameters to disease transmission and prevalence. We compile two sets of baseline parameter values: one for areas of high
transmission and one for low transmission. We compute sensitivity indices of the reproductive number (which measures initial
disease transmission) and the endemic equilibrium point (which measures disease prevalence) to the parameters at the baseline
values. We find that in areas of low transmission, the reproductive number and the equilibrium proportion of infectious humans
are most sensitive to the mosquito biting rate. In areas of high transmission, the reproductive number is again most sensitive
to the mosquito biting rate, but the equilibrium proportion of infectious humans is most sensitive to the human recovery rate.
This suggests strategies that target the mosquito biting rate (such as the use of insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor
residual spraying) and those that target the human recovery rate (such as the prompt diagnosis and treatment of infectious
individuals) can be successful in controlling malaria. |
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Keywords: | Malaria Epidemic model Sensitivity analysis Reproductive number Endemic equilibria |
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