Coastal and estuarine ecological risk assessment: the need for a more formal approach to stressor identification

Application of ecological risk assessment to coastal and estuarine systems is accelerating although it initially lagged behind applications to land and freshwaters. Broader spatial and temporal scales, and multiple stressor integration are appropriately being considered more frequently in all risk assessment activities. This expansion and integration is essential for coastal risk assessment. Because coastal assessments must deal with co-occurrence of several candidate stressors manifesting within broad spatial and temporal scales, wider use of formal methods for assessing causal linkages is needed. Simple Bayesian inference techniques are discussed here to demonstrate their utility in quantifying the belief warranted by available information. The applicability of Bayesian techniques is illustrated with two examples, possible causes of fish kills on the Mid-Atlantic US coast and possible causes of hepatic lesions in fish of Puget Sound (Washington, US).